Amazon Rainforest Destruction may be Irreversible

A US scientist from Pennsylvania State University, claims the Amazon Rain forest could disappear within the next half century. Admitably his estimate suggests a rate much faster than other experts. He believes the danger lies in the complex feedback process. His model is based on mathematical formulas and calculations.

"Research published in the journal Science earlier this year suggesting that deforestation rates in the Amazon could reach 42% by 2020 were based on unreliable facts and "ecological futurology", Brazil's science and technology ministry said.

But Professor Alcock's forecast, based on a mathematical model of human-driven deforestation, is starker still.

Without immediate and forceful action to change current agricultural, mining and logging practices, he says, the forest could pass the point of no return in 10 to 15 years.

Boat on Amazon BBC
Human pressures on the forest are growing
And the model indicates that the forest, far from having 75 or 100 years to reach total collapse as other researchers predict, could essentially disappear within 40 or 50 years.

Professor Alcock is presenting his findings at a conference in Scotland being held jointly by the Geology Societies of America and London.

He hopes to develop his research with fieldwork in the Amazon, although he argues that his model is also a useful predictor of what could happen in the other great tropical forest systems, in south east Asia and the Congo river basin in Africa.

Professor Alcock, who says the size of the Amazon river basin has already been reduced by about 25%, believes the threat lies in a process known as evapotranspiration, in which the rain that falls on a forest is retained and then returned to the atmosphere.

But without a healthy vegetation base, he says, there is little to stop the water running off, and this creates the potential for a highly unstable forest system."

For more information: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1406567.stm

To the contrary many other experts believe that the numbers are inflated and that as much as 87% of the Amazon forest may still be intact. They claim some forget to factor in secondary generation, which is not included in the models.

Tags: amazon, rainforest, amazon forest, brazi, deforestation